Winter? In the tropics maybe!

[MUP]

Good gracious at the warm temps, and RAIN coming in this week, the FIRST week of winter no less!

[WG Taxidermist]

Yep we definitely got some crazy weather around here!

Sent from somewhere in the sticks using Tapatalk

[ImThere]

California winter!

the one and only "ImThere"

[BSK]

Exactly what can be expected for the early part of an El Nino winter. The big question is what happens later in the winter as the El Nino fades. Remember, December last year was well above normal across the entire country, yet it turned into one of the colder winters we've had. More and more models are trending towards a cold and snowy February. In fact, most models suggest a switch to cold weather fairly early in January--probably no later than the 10th.

[MUP]

Cool! Literally!

[Phil1979]

I hope it cools down soon. It is 75 degrees right now and I'm hunting. Just crazy.

[BSK]

Looks like the cold is coming in by New Year's day.

[MUP]

And dry weather I'd guess along with it. Seems we cant, at least down here, have cold weather along with much moisture at the same time. When we have rain, a cold front approaches and swishes the moisture out most times, and we just get the tail end of some flurries. Most times that is. We do on occasion get a few inches of snow in the mountainous areas around here.

[BSK]

That's correct MUP. We generally don't get much snow from Cold fronts passing through. By the time the cold air arrives the moisture has been pushed away or already squeezed out of the atmosphere. To get a big snow, we need the cold air to be in place and for a Low Pressure system to form in East Texas or Louisiana and then slide through the Deep South, drawing moisture out of the Gulf and transporting it up into the cold air over Tennessee. That scenario doesn't happen very often. Although interestingly, one particular long-range forecasting group with a good track record is forecasting that exact scenario to occur more frequently this winter, mostly in February and March. Eastern TN is forecast to get 200% of normal snowfall, while all of TN is forecast to get at least 150% of normal.

I would love to see this forecast come to be. Nashville is in a snow drought. We have had the least snow over a 5-year span in recorded history. We haven't seen more than a couple of inches for the entire winter since around 2009. Bowling Green, KY--just 50 miles north of Nashville--had record snows last year. Nashville got virtually nothing. For the 20 years I've lived in Nashville, the city seems to be under a snow dome. We've received none of the big snows other parts of the state have seen.

[MUP]

You and me both BSK. I'd love to see a good stretch of several good snows this winter.